December gets a lot of attention for the obvious reason — it’s peak season in South Florida. But for investors, December is far more than a revenue spike. It’s a predictive month. Booking curves, rate tolerance, stay patterns, and guest behavior in December reliably indicate what Q1–Q3 will look like next year.
Think of December as your “annual stress test”: demand pressure is high, supply is fully online, weather introduces variability, and channels are at their most competitive. If something is going to crack — pricing, product, operations — December exposes it.
And if something is going to outperform, December reveals that too.
This playbook reframes December not as a celebration of full calendars… but as a diagnostic window investors can use to shape smarter underwriting, stronger 2026 pricing, and more resilient portfolio decisions.
December as a Leading Indicator: What the Market Already Told You
Florida’s record-setting Q4 2024 (33.1M visitors Oct–Dec) signaled what we saw again in 2025: demand across South Florida is structurally strong, not episodic. December continues to behave like a momentum month — the trend line that sets expectations for the year ahead.
Regional proxies reinforce it:
- Miami hotel ADR and occupancy rebounded sharply in late 2024, meaning the market is still willing to pay for quality, proximity, and amenities.
- Palm Beach County hit record visitation, a reminder that upper-tier leisure and family demand remains durable in this region.
What this means for 2026:
If your December held ADR, produced healthy occupancy outside the holiday week, and didn’t rely on deep discounting inside 14 days, you’re looking at a “green-light” scenario for 2026 rate strength.
If your December required heavy incentives or showed demand soft spots, it’s less about a weak market — and more about:
- positioning,
- rate fences,
- channel dependency,
- or product fit.

Either way, December gave you clues. Now we interpret them.
Booking Curves: Your First Forward-Looking Pricing Signal
Lead-time behavior in December is one of the most reliable predictors of rate elasticity for the following year. It tells you exactly how bold you can be with 2026 pacing and holds.
Look at three things:
A. Share of last-minute bookings (<14 days)
If December 2025 saw 30%+ booked inside two weeks, your market is absorbing late pricing — not rejecting it. That means 2026 should support:
- higher close-in rates,
- tighter discount windows,
- and firmer minimum stays around compression periods.
B. Growth in early bookings (60–90+ days)
If you saw more early commitments, particularly for Christmas → NYE, you’re seeing renewed confidence and advance willingness to pay.
Use this to set 2026 holiday floors earlier — October, not November.
C. Stayed the same?
Flat curves year-over-year mean you adjust fences, not philosophy:
- Hold rates longer
- Don’t discount early
- Add structure (min-stays, shoulder-season rules)
For 2026:
Treat your December curve as your baseline pacing model. If you didn’t overreact to gaps in December, don’t overreact in February or March either.

ADR Behavior: The Real Test of Pricing Power
December ADR should never be evaluated in a vacuum. Compare:
- December vs. November
- December vs. January
- December vs. your annual ADR
Patterns to look for:
A. Strong ADR + Strong Occupancy
You underpricing? No. You’re simply positioned correctly.
Raise 2026 December floors 5–8% and increase minimum stays for peak dates.
B. Flat ADR + High Occupancy
This is the classic sign of rate fences that were too loose:
- You sold too much too early
- You didn’t gate high-value nights
- Guests booked shorter stays than optimal
For 2026, add:
- 4–7 night minimums for Dec 26 → Jan 1
- Length-of-stay discounts only for off-peak dates
- Price ladders that push ADR higher for short stays
C. Low ADR relative to your annual average
Holiday demand didn’t fail — your structure did. For 2026:
- Reduce reliance on broad OTA pricing
- Strengthen weekend premiums
- Revisit staging, amenities, and photography

December is the clearest mirror you’ll get. If ADR underperformed here, it will underperform elsewhere unless corrected.
Occupancy Patterns: What’s Expanding (or Contracting) in Your Market
The most valuable December insight isn’t the holiday week — it’s early December.
If Dec 1–20 showed:
- Higher YoY occupancy, or
- More consistent midweek demand,
…that’s a sign of broadening shoulder-season strength.
This is where your 2026 upside lives.
Indicators of a strong 2026:
- Early December pacing held without heavy discounting
- Group & family bookings came earlier
- Airport arrivals trended up
- Hotels in your comp set reported increasing ADR even before the holiday peak
Indicators of market softness:
- You filled only after dropping rates
- You relied heavily on 0–3 day bookings
- Your early December looks identical to your October
A December market that broadens earlier is a December market that will support higher Q1–Q3 assumptions.

Length of Stay (LOS): December’s Hidden Forecasting Tool
Holiday travel blends:
- family trips
- international tourism
- relocations
- remote work escapes
Because of that mix, December LOS shifts predict mid-term (28–90 day) demand in Q1 better than any other month.
Signals that matter:
- Rising median LOS (ex: 4 → 6 nights)
- Growing share of 10+ night bookings
- More early January “bridge stays”
If you saw these in December:
- Guests are primed for longer winter stays
- You should pre-format your 2026 pricing to show:
- weekly and monthly discounts
- mid-term-friendly amenities
- flexible check-in days

Platforms are leaning into long stays—Airbnb explicitly. December tells you whether you should too.
Channel Mix & Net Revenue: December Exposes Your Distribution Weakness
Airbnb’s shift to a ~15.5% host-only fee for connected hosts reshapes net take-rates heading into 2026. December channel mix tells you whether you’re vulnerable.
If you were >80% Airbnb:
Your 2026 margin risk is high.
Plan to:
- Pull rates apart (Airbnb vs. direct)
- Invest in direct-book remarketing
- Diversify into Vrbo + metasearch
- Build a December email campaign to past guests
If you had healthy OTA diversification:
Perfect — now refine:
- Channel-specific rate fences
- Differential minimum stays
- OTA vs. direct cancellation rules
Your goal for 2026:
Reduce channel dependency → Increase price control → Improve NOI.

December gives you the cleanest read on where you stand.
Expense Reality Check: December as a Cost Stress Test
Two categories matter more than any others in South Florida:
A. Pool Heat
Heat-pump efficiency drops sharply under 50°F during cold fronts.
December tells you:
- Your real heater kWh usage
- Whether your pool-heat surcharge covers costs
- How much heat loss you had without a cover
If December was expensive, fix 2026 now:
- Require overnight cover usage
- Introduce seasonal surcharges
- Tune setpoints to 84–86°F
- Add “cold-front exceptions” to your policy
B. Labor & Consumables
Holiday turnovers stress staffing. Review:
- per-stay consumables
- laundry volume
- overtime or premium-day rates

If December ran hot operationally, 2026 needs updated budgets — not wishful thinking.
Reviews & Guest Experience: Holiday Feedback Is Pure Signal
Holiday guests behave differently:
- Higher expectations
- More multigenerational groups
- More food preparation
- More tech usage
Their feedback reflects pressure points normal months hide.
Look for:
- HVAC complaints
- Pool heat confusion
- Parking frustration
- Check-in issues
- Noise sensitivity
These are not “December problems.”
They are 2026 vulnerabilities waiting to surface again.
Fix them before seasonality magnifies them.

Turning December Into Your 2026 Playbook
Here’s your streamlined, investor-grade action plan.
A. Pricing & Rate Strategy
- Raise early-December floors 3–6% if pacing held
- Set holiday 7-night mins if Dec 26–Jan 1 sold out early
- Build stronger rate ladders for short stays
B. Distribution & Channel Strategy
- Reprice to offset Airbnb’s host-only fee
- Target <65% Airbnb share by next December
- Invest in direct-booking retargeting
C. Product & Amenity Positioning
- If LOS rose, pivot into mid-term readiness
- Add workspace, linens, starter office supplies
- Promote 28+ night stays by October
D. Expense Controls
- Publish a formal pool-heat policy
- Budget 6–9% OPEX increase for 2026
- Run an annual December energy audit
E. Review Optimization
- Use December’s high-volume reviews to lock Guest Favorites
- Tighten response-time SLAs
- Clarify pool/parking/HVAC instructions
December gives you a rare dataset: high volume, high value, high emotional stakes.

Use it to run your business forward, not backward.
Quick 60-Minute December Diagnostic
If you only do one exercise, do this today:
- Export the past two Decembers + current December from your PMS
- Build a 2×2: ADR ↑/↓ vs. Occ ↑/↓
- Flag dates that sold out early → raise 2026 holds
- Flag dates that sold only after discounting → tighten fences
- Calculate share of 10+ night stays → set mid-term strategy
- Review channel mix → set your 2026 direct-book goal
- Compare pool-heat cost vs. surcharge → fix pricing
You’ll have a clearer 2026 plan in an hour than most operators build all year.

December is the most honest month of the year for STR investors.
Demand peaks. Costs spike. Guest expectations rise.
And in that pressure cooker, the truth emerges.
If December validated your pricing, product, and operations — lean into that confidence for 2026.
If December exposed gaps — fix them before they cost you another peak season.
Either way, December isn’t the end of the year.
It’s the start of your next one.

























































































































































































































































